Juan Cole - June 23, 2005

Brussels Conference Inconclusive
32 Dead in Guerrilla Violence

The Brussels conference of foreign ministers on Iraq seems to me to have yielded little practical result. The real action will come at the donors' conference in Amman, Jordan, next month. The world community has pledged billions to Iraq, but has only delivered about $2 billion, in large part because the security situation makes it impossible to send teams out to evaluate projects or to actually disburse the funding in a practical way.

Questions on UN Option in Iraq

A reader with a US military background writes:

"I noted your recent proposal for increased UN military involvement with some questions.

1. With great oversimplification, the civil war in Iraq is being fought by factions who desire to have the long term control of either the government of the whole country, or their own particular region (ie Kurdistan, or to a lesser extent Sadrist Basra).

Stirling Newberry on UN Option
And the Great Oil Price Shock of Gulf War IV

Stirling Newberry doesn't think the UN has enough troops for Iraq, either; and he instances the Congo as an example of things going bad.

"What’s wrong with staying in: Realistically any change of occupation policy will require a change of regime in the United States. Given that the current Executive controls both houses of Congress, and there is no even improbable scenario which brings to the White House anyone of different persuasion – indulge your most arcane avian bird flu and Presidential succession scenario – its war hawks all the way down the depth chart – realistically, it means than any occupation scenario is basing its judgement on 2009. By 2009, at reasonable estimates, there will be another 3500 US military fatalities in Iraq, there will be another 250 allied fatalities. There will be another 2000 mercenary fatalities. There will be some 40,000 Iraqi military dead – including government and rebel fighters. There will be some 200,000 incremental deaths in Iraq because of direct consequences of conflict, deprivation and crime. We are not talking, then, about “can we turn Iraq around today”. We are talking about “can we turn Iraq around after another 3 and a half years of civil war?” It is useful to look, then, at two example failed states and their experiences. One is the Democratic [Republic] of the Congo. The other is Lebanon. "

Abizaid: "Cost in Blood and Treasure"
2nd Lt.: "The War is Lost"

Vice President Dick Cheney needs to talk to his generals more often. Michael Hedges of the Houston Chronicle reports that Gen. John Abizaid, who has recently consulted with US commanders in Iraq, said today that the guerrilla movement in Iraq is as strong now as it was 6 months ago. Dick Cheney recently said it was in its "last throes." If so, the throes appear likely to go on for decades. Abizaid, however, conveyed an unrealistic impression that the Iraqi forces will take over the heavy lifting any time soon, and he continued to deny that the US needed more troops on the ground. CNN's Jane Arraf reported on Wednesday from Anbar province that virtually no one among the Lt. Colonels and fighting troops on the ground in Iraq thinks they have enough boots on the ground.