Juan Cole - 10/10/05

30,000 Dead in Pakistan
2.5 Million Homeless

The Pakistani government is now estimating 30,000 dead in the earthquake, and incidents of civil violence are being reported by AP. CNN is suggesting that 2.5 million are homeless, and perhaps as many as 5 million.

The magnitude of the disaster is only gradually becoming apparent. It will put enormous pressure on Pakistan's government to respond effectively. Its ability to do so is not clear.

Guest Editorial by Gilbert Achcar: The US and Shiite Politics in Iraq

Gilbert Achcar writes:

1) How US and British Forces help Iraqis recover their sovereignty

For any person believing in good faith that occupation troops in Iraq are helping the Iraqis build independent institutions in order to recover their sovereignty, recent events in Basra—the way British troops stormed police headquarters in that city—and their aftermath ought to be enough to prove the contrary.

Basra Bombing Targets Badr
Jaafari Rejects Conference of National Reconsiliation

Someone detonated a car bomb in Basra outside an office of the Badr Corps, the paramilitary of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq. One child was killed and six were wounded in the explosion. It was not clear who was behind the blast, but Badr has lots of enemies, including Sunni Arabs in the South and rival Shiite militias (profiled Sunday by the NYT's Richard A. Oppel Jr.. The British narrative of problems with Shiite militias in Basra and the possible link to Iran, reported by Oppel, still makes no sense to me. I think it is very difficult (and perhaps embarrassing) for the US and Britain to admit to themselves that significant numbers of local Iraqis just don't want them there, so they keep seeking an explanation for anti-Coalition violence in foreign influence. If bombings targetting the British were done by a splinter Sadrist group around Shaikh Ahmad Fartusi, this is southern Shiite nativism at work, not foreign influence. The Sadr movement does not get along that well with the Iranians.