Anatomy of a Victory

[from the December 19, 2005 issue]

George W. Bush's plan to privatize Social Security, the centerpiece of his second-term agenda, is dead. Conservative pundit William Kristol argues that this Bush defeat began the unraveling of his presidency: "The negative effect of the Social Security [campaign] is underestimated," says Kristol. "Once you make that kind of mistake, people tend to be less deferential to your decisions." There was an "entire Republican agenda, based on the idea that we reform these entitlement programs," says New York Times columnist David Brooks. "That's gone now because of the failure of Social Security." A remarkable progressive mobilization caused Bush's defeat--and progressives can learn much from the anatomy of that victory.

For Bush, privatization seemed within reach. He was building on a multiyear, multimillion-dollar conservative campaign that had already convinced influential pundits that Social Security was in trouble and needed reform. Conservative groups pledged to spend more than $50 million on outside ad campaigns. Bush's plan was designed to reassure seniors and those nearing retirement that their benefits wouldn't be touched. It appealed to younger workers by offering the chance of getting rich in the stock market. And the President didn't need overwhelming public support; with House Republican discipline assured, Bush had only to convince five Democratic senators up for re-election in red states to oppose a filibuster. After making Social Security privatization a focal point of his 2005 State of the Union address, Bush quickly visited five of those states to send nervous senators a message.