Billmon: Market Update

Intrade -- my favorite on-line bucket shop -- has been making contracts on the odds that the Dems will win back the House and Senate in November. I noticed this evening that the House contract,

which pays a buck if the Republicans win, has fallen below the 50 cent mark. Last price: 48.5 cents.

In other words, the market (meaning the London bookmakers) is now putting better than even odds on the Dems winning the House back in November.

I don't know if this has anything to do with Rover's reported indictment (please Santa, I promise I won't ask for anything else this Christmas) but it certainly conforms to the picture of a regime in political meltdown. On the other hand, the Intrade Senate contract is still trading at around 80 cents (80% chance GOP holds the upper chamber) so somebody still thinks there's life in the diseased old floozy yet.