Political Scientists' Models Predict Democratic Takeover of House of Representatives

APSA Press Release

For Immediate Release
Contact: Bahram Rajaee
202-483-2512

Political Scientists' Models Predict Democratic Takeover of House of Representatives In forecasts made as long as six months ago, scholars predict likely Democratic gain of 22-29 seats in the House, and 2-3 seats in the Senate.

Washington, DC--Election forecasting models completed by political scientists months before recent events predict significant Democratic gains in the 2006 midterm elections, including a likely 22 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 2-3 seats in the U.S. Senate.

The predictions appear in two articles coauthored by Carl Klarner and Stan Buchanan (both of Indiana State University) and a third article authored by Alan Abramowitz (Emory University). The articles appear in the October 2006 issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association (APSA), and are available online at: /section_223.cfm.

Klarner and Buchanan employ the same framework to forecast the House and Senate elections. Traditionally, election forecasting models rely primarily either on district- and state-level analyses or aggregate methods measuring national trends. The authors develop a new predictive model that combines both approaches and uses the strengths of each while minimizing their analytical weaknesses. As a result, "both national and district conditions, as well as how those conditions combine to influence election outcomes, may be examined" observe the authors.