Billmon: The Idiocracy Vote

Two recent polls -- by the Pew Center and ABC/Washington Post -- show a sudden tightening in the generic congressional ballot, with the Democratic lead shaved from 11-13% two weeks ago to 4-6% now. The main reason: an abrupt change of heart on the part of many independent voters.

There seems to be a debate about how real this trend is -- two other polls, by Time and Newsweek magazines show little or no tightening -- and what it might mean, if it means anything.

My hunch is that the trend is real, although possibly exaggerated by some shifts in the partisan composition of the surveys, particlarly the ABC/Post poll. But we've also seen polls pointing to a sudden tightening in some specific races, such as the Montana and Rhode Island Senate contests. On the other hand, recent polls in the House races, if anything, look worse for the Republicans than they did a week ago. And several key Senate races, such as Missouri, remain tight as a tick.