The Many Ways Our Future is a Mess

By Michael T. Klare, The Nation
Posted on December 2, 2008, Printed on December 2, 2008
http://www.alternet.org/story/109437/

In a remarkable evocation of the strategic environment of 2025, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), a government intelligence service, portrays a world in which the United States wields considerably less power than it does today but faces far greater challenges. The assessment, contained in Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, was released November 20 and is intended to be read by President-elect Obama's transition team as well as the general public. "Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor," the council notes, "the United States' relative strength -- even in the military realm -- will decline and US leverage will become more constrained."

The report is devoted largely to an examination of the major trends -- political, economic, military and environmental -- that will shape the world of 2025: the rise of China and India as major actors in world affairs; Russia's growing significance as a power broker in Europe; the increasing role of corporations, crime networks and other nonstate actors; and the growing impact of climate change. But two key developments, by the council's own admission, stand out above all others: the decline of America's global primacy and the growing international competition for energy.