Mathematical Model Shows Why Defeating Insurgent Groups Like Taliban is So Difficult

Study in INFORMS journal Operations Research

HANOVER, MD, July 16, 2009 – Insurgent groups like the Taliban can only be effectively engaged with timely and accurate military intelligence, and even good intelligence may only succeed in containing the insurgency, not defeating it, according to a new study in the current issue of Operations Research, a flagship journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS®).

“Why Defeating Insurgencies is Hard: The Effect of Intelligence in Counterinsurgency Operations – A Best-Case Scenario” is by Moshe Kress and Roberto Szechtman of the Naval Postgraduate School. The study appears in the current issue of Operations Research.

The study is the first of its kind to combine military intelligence, attrition and civilian population behavior in a unified model of counterinsurgency dynamics.