Pundits Predict No More Accurately Than a Coin Toss, Students Find

ScienceDaily (May 6, 2011) — Op-ed columnists and TV's talking heads build followings by making bold, confident predictions about politics and the economy. But rarely are their predictions analyzed for accuracy.

Now, a class at Hamilton College led by public policy professor P. Gary Wyckoff has analyzed the predictions of 26 prognosticators between September 2007 and December 2008. Their findings? Anyone can make as accurate a prediction as most of them if just by flipping a coin.

Their research paper, "Are Talking Heads Blowing Hot Air? An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media" was presented via webcast May 2 at www.hamilton.edu/pundit.

The Hamilton students sampled the predictions of 26 individuals who wrote columns in major print media and who appeared on the three major Sunday news shows -- Face the Nation, Meet the Press, and This Week -- and evaluated the accuracy of 472 predictions made during the 16-month period. They used a scale of 1 to 5 (1 being "will not happen, 5 being "will absolutely happen") to rate the accuracy of each, and then divided them into three categories: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.