Falling Coverage Rates: One Reason Government Surveys May Not Show a Rise in Poverty

By: Dean Baker Sunday April 8, 2012 7:39 am

In a NYT Economic blogpost Jason DeParle ponders the fact that government surveys are not showing much increase in poverty, even though we know there are many people experiencing long periods of unemployment and many forms of government assistance have been cut back. One possible explanation is that people in poverty and extreme poverty are less likely to be covered by the survey.

My colleague, John Schmitt, found clear evidence of a coverage problem in comparing employment rates as shown in the 2000 Census and the overlapping months of the Current Population Survey (CPS). This is a useful check on the accuracy of the CPS, the main survey for measuring both unemployment and poverty, since the Census has near universal reach with a response rate of close to 99 percent. By comparison, the coverage rate for the CPS is close to 88 percent.