Paul Krugman: A Technological Drive Toward Driverless Cars

Tuesday, 05 February 2013 09:19 

Felix Salmon has been converted to the cult of the self-driving car. "While I've generally been a fan of just about any alternative to the automobile, now I'm not so sure," Mr. Salmon, a financial writer for Reuters, wrote in a blog post on Jan. 24. "I think that smart car technology is improving impressively, to the point at which it could be the most promising solution, especially in developed parts of the world like California." Indeed, this is starting to look like a real thing. And I'm impressed.

By and large, I'm in the camp of those disillusioned about technology — mainly, I think, because the future isn't what it used to be. A case in point is Herman Kahn's "The Year 2000," a 1967 exercise in forecasting that offered a convenient list of "very likely" technological developments. When 2000 actually did roll around, the striking thing was how overoptimistic the list was: Mr. Kahn foresaw most things that actually did happen, but also many things that didn't (and still haven't). And economic growth fell far short of his expectations.