The Waning of the Modern Ages
September 20, 2012
Time to Abolish the American Dream
by MORRIS BERMAN
La longue durée —the long
run—was an expression made popular by the Annales School of French
historians led by Fernand Braudel, who coined the phrase in 1958. The
basic argument of this school is that the proper concern of historians
should be the analysis of structures that lie at the base of
contemporary events. Underneath short-term events such as individual
cycles of economic boom and bust, said Braudel, we can discern the
persistence of “old attitudes of thought and action, resistant
frameworks dying hard, at times against all logic.” An important
derivative of the Annales research is the work of the World Systems
Analysis school, including Immanuel Wallerstein and Christopher
Chase-Dunn, which similarly focuses on long-term structures: capitalism,
in particular.
The “arc” of capitalism, according to this school, is about 600 years
long, from 1500 to 2100. It is our particular (mis)fortune to be living
through the beginning of the end, the disintegration of capitalism as a
world system. It was mostly commercial capital in the sixteenth
century, evolving into industrial capital in the eighteenth and
nineteenth centuries, and then moving on to financial capital—money
created by money itself, and by speculation in currency—in the twentieth
and twenty-first. In dialectical fashion, it will be the very success
of the system that eventually does it in.
The last time a change of this magnitude occurred was during the
fourteenth and fifteenth centuries, during which time the medieval world
began to come apart and be replaced by the modern one. In his classic
study of the period,
The Waning of the Middle Ages,
the Dutch historian Johan Huizinga depicted the time as one of
depression and cultural exhaustion—like our own age, not much fun to
live through. One reason for this is that the world is literally
perched over an abyss. What lies ahead is largely unknown, and to have
to hover over an abyss for a long time is, to put it colloquially, a bit
of a drag. The same thing was true at the time of the collapse of the
Roman Empire as well, on the ruins of which the feudal system slowly
arose.